Oleksiak is the #14 Most Expensive Defenseman on FanDuel and is Projected to Be…

Little DraftKings Projection Provides Play and Fade Advice

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 5.2 FanDuel pts Jamie Oleksiak is the #18 ranked defenseman. He is the #14 highest priced defenseman ($3500). Based on the projection, Oleksiak is worth $2.8K. There are 6 other options at $3500 (Michael Stone, Ben Lovejoy, Martin Marincin, Dante Fabbro, Oscar Fantenberg, Calle Rosen) and Oleksiak is ranked #5 among the 7. Based on salary, he is expected to have 6.4 FPs, a value reached in 19 of 57 games (33%). The combined ‘cover percentage’ for defensemen priced at $4.0K and above is 48%.

4/13 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: DAL 2.3 (#8 Most Today) @ NSH 2.7 (#5 Most)PROJECTION (POS RANK): 5.14 Fantasy Points (#38), 0.18 points (#32), 0.06 goals (#24), 0.12 assists (#33), 0.93 shots on goal (#36), 0.9 PIM (#4 most), 1.24 blocked shots (#25)

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Oleksiak is overrated on DraftKings with a projected 1.5 DK pts (#25 among defensemen). He is the #23 highest priced defenseman ($2500). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $2.4K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). There are 4 other options at $2500 (Martin Marincin, Dante Fabbro, Oscar Fantenberg, Jonas Siegenthaler) and Oleksiak is ranked #4 among the 5. Based on salary, he is expected to have 1.6 FPs, a value reached in 19 of 57 games (33%). The combined ‘cover percentage’ for defenseman priced at $4.0K and above is 41%.

Oleksiak is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model’s projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

He is the #475 ranked fantasy skater this season and the #132 defender. His defender ranking drops to #134 when basing it on average fantasy points. He peaked early in the season. He averaged 2.8 FPs in his first 18 games and 0.2 FP in his final 19 games. His fantasy production is more volatile that most players based on having a relatively high standard deviation. When he is good, he is really good but when he is off, he is really off. Our projected ceiling for Oleksiak when he ‘goes off’ is 15 fantasy points (his average is 1.1FPs).

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STATISTICAL DROPOFF FROM PREVIOUS SEASON

Based on his fantasy point average, he is on a downward trend. His average fantasy points decreased by 15% this season.

SEASON TREND’18-19’17-18’16-17Fantasy Points599035FP Average1.11.30.9Regular Season GP566841PTS0.20.20.2GOALS0.10.10.1ASSISTS0.10.20.0SOG1.01.20.8BS1.11.11.3

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

He has averaged 2.4 fantasy points per week and had 18 weeks where he came up short (below 80% of average) and had 6 weeks where he was +20% above average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad WeekALL2.4 FP per Week618Week 14 (2 games 2 per game)+1.6Week 20 (1 games)-2.4Week 3-1 (2 games -0.5 per game)-3.4Week 427.2 (3 games 9.1 per game)+24.9Week 57 (3 games 2.3 per game)+4.6Week 62.5 (2 games 1.2 per game)Week 71.5 (3 games 0.5 per game)-0.9Week 88.5 (4 games 2.1 per game)+6.1Week 91.2 (3 games 0.4 per game)-1.1Week 104 (3 games 1.3 per game)+1.6Week 11-2.5 (4 games -0.6 per game)-4.9Week 120 (1 games)-2.4Week 140 (1 games)-2.4Week 151.5 (2 games 0.8 per game)-0.9Week 160 (1 games)-2.4Week 180 (3 games 0 per game)-2.4Week 190.5 (3 games 0.2 per game)-1.9Week 200.5 (3 games 0.2 per game)-1.9Week 21-1 (4 games -0.2 per game)-3.4Week 220 (1 games)-2.4Week 230.5 (1 games)-1.9Week 240 (2 games 0 per game)-2.4Week 250.5 (1 games)-1.9Week 260 (1 games)-2.4Week 274 (2 games 2 per game)+1.6

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

His FanDuel average was 5.4 points and on DraftKings it was 1.5 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 3 and 11.2 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or BadAll5.4 ($3.6K)14 G, 32 B1.5 ($3.1K)18 G, 33 B4/6 MIN11.2 ($3.5K)+5.83 ($2.5K)+1.54/5 @CHI6.4 ($3.5K)–2 ($2.6K)+0.53/27 @CGY3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($2.5K)-0.53/19 FLA1.6 ($3.5K)-3.80.5 ($2.5K)-13/15 LV6.4 ($3.5K)–2 ($2.5K)+0.53/12 @BUF3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($2.5K)-0.53/5 NYR0 ($3.5K)-5.40 ($2.5K)-1.52/26 @LV8 ($3.5K)+2.62.5 ($2.5K)+12/24 @CHI1.6–0.5–2/23 CAR0-5.40 ($2.5K)-1.52/21 STL1.6 ($3.5K)-3.80.5 ($2.5K)-12/19 NSH3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($2.5K)-0.52/16 @CAR0 ($3.5K)-5.40 ($2.5K)-1.52/14 @TB6.4 ($3.5K)–2 ($2.5K)+0.52/12 @FLA0 ($3.5K)-5.40 ($2.5K)-1.52/9 @ARI8–2.5–2/7 @NSH3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($2.5K)-0.52/4 ARI0 ($3.5K)-5.40 ($2.5K)-1.52/2 @NSH1.6 ($3.5K)-3.80.5 ($2.5K)-12/1 MIN3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($2.5K)-0.51/30 BUF6.4 ($3.5K)–2 ($2.5K)+0.51/15 @SJ3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($2.5K)-0.51/12 @LA3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($2.5K)-0.51/11 @ANA0 ($3.5K)-5.40 ($2.6K)-1.51/4 WPG3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($2.6K)-0.512/17 ANA3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($2.7K)-0.512/15 LA1.6 ($3.5K)-3.80.5 ($3K)-112/14 BOS3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($2.8K)-0.512/12 @CHI4.8 ($3.5K)–1.5 ($3.3K)–12/10 @NYI3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($3.5K)-0.512/8 @OTT4.8 ($3.5K)–1.5 ($3.4K)–12/6 NYI12.8 ($3.5K)+7.43.5 ($3.3K)+212/4 COL1.6 ($3.5K)-3.80.5 ($3K)-112/1 PHI3.2 ($3.5K)-2.21 ($3.2K)-0.511/28 @COL1.6 ($3.5K)-3.80.5 ($2.9K)-111/27 @WPG11.2 ($3.6K)+5.83 ($2.9K)+1.511/24 CLB3.2 ($3.6K)-2.21 ($3.5K)-0.511/23 @BOS0 ($3.6K)-5.40 ($3.1K)-1.511/21 DAL12.8 ($3.6K)+7.43.5 ($3.4K)+211/19 BUF3.2 ($3.6K)-2.21 ($3.1K)-0.511/17 @OTT0 ($3.8K)-5.40 ($3.3K)-1.511/15 TB3.2 ($3.8K)-2.21 ($3.9K)-0.511/13 @NJ0 ($3.8K)-5.40 ($4.1K)-1.511/7 @WAS0 ($4.3K)-5.40 ($4.4K)-1.511/5 NJ16.8 ($4.1K)+11.44.5 ($4.6K)+311/3 TOR4.8 ($4.1K)–1.5 ($4.5K)–11/1 @NYI3.2 ($3.8K)-2.21 ($4.8K)-0.510/30 NYI19.2 ($3.8K)+13.85 ($4.6K)+3.510/27 @VAN9.6 ($3.8K)+4.22.5 ($4.2K)+110/25 @CGY12.8 ($3.8K)+7.43.5 ($3.8K)+210/23 @EDM28.8 ($3.7K)+23.47.5 ($3.5K)+610/18 @TOR8 ($3.7K)+2.62.5 ($3.1K)+110/16 VAN8 ($3.7K)+2.62.5 ($3K)+110/11 LV8 ($3.6K)+2.62.5 ($3K)+110/6 MON3.2 ($3.6K)-2.21 ($2.9K)-0.510/4 WAS13.6 ($3.6K)+8.23.5 ($2.8K)+2
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